Queensland’s financial outlook has taken a turn, with the latest Mid-Year Fiscal and Economic Review (MYFER) revealing state debt projections reaching $217.8 billion by 2028. 

The figures are a significant increase from the $172 billion forecast in the previous Labor government’s last budget.

Treasurer David Janetzki criticised Labor’s handling of the state’s finances, calling it a decade-long legacy of “lies and deceit”. 

The review forecasts unprecedented deficits, with the 2025-26 financial year’s anticipated $500 million shortfall now projected to balloon to $6.9 billion. 

Subsequent years follow a similar trajectory, including a $9.2 billion deficit in 2026-27, a stark contrast to the surplus once expected for that period.

The state’s debt burden is poised to exceed Victoria’s, with Queensland’s per capita borrowing expected to surge to $40,000 by 2027-28. 

Comparatively, Victoria’s net financial public sector borrowing per capita is projected to peak at $37,000.

Reduced coal royalties are expected to exacerbate the revenue shortfall. 

The state’s royalty intake for 2024-25 is now forecast at $8 billion, down $420 million from previous estimates. 

Analysts attribute this to declining coal export volumes and prices, compounded by a weakening Australian dollar. 

Economic growth forecasts have also been revised downward, from 3% to 2.5% in 2024-25, while unemployment is expected to remain steady at 4.25% through to 2025-26.

The government has pledged a “calm and methodical” approach to address the fiscal challenges, focusing on what it sees as the critical issues of youth crime, health, housing, and cost-of-living. 

Recent measures include cancelling the $37 billion Pioneer-Burdekin hydro project and establishing a Productivity Commission.

However, Shadow Treasurer Shannon Fentiman has accused the government of inflating the debt figures for political advantage. 

“They have juiced this up,” she said, suggesting potential revenue improvements could ease the forecasts in coming months.

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