UN raises emissions alarm
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The world is running out of excuses - and time - to curb catastrophic climate change.
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has released its 2024 Emissions Gap Report, which carriers an urgent call to action.
The report warns that the global community must dramatically accelerate its efforts to bridge the emissions gap if the goal of limiting warming to 1.5°C is to be maintained.
Current national commitments are insufficient; even if fulfilled, they would only restrict global temperature rise to 2.6 - 2.8°C, with the possibility of reaching as high as 3.1°C if policies remain unchanged.
UNEP’s annual Emissions Gap Report, now in its 15th year, provides a comprehensive review of the difference between actual emissions trajectories and the reductions needed to achieve the Paris Agreement's targets.
The 2024 edition titled ‘No more hot air … please!’ presents a stark outlook.
“Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before - starting right now,” UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said.
According to the report, to achieve the 1.5°C target, nations must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 42 per cent by 2030 and 57 per cent by 2035, relative to 2019 levels.
Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which will be presented ahead of COP30 in Brazil, are considered critical to this process.
“Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinder boxes,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said.
He added that the world is “playing with fire”, urging nations to close not only the emissions gap but also gaps in ambition, implementation, and finance.
According to Guterres, there can be “no more playing for time. We are out of time”.
The report notes that achieving the 1.5°C pathway would require a comprehensive, G20-led mobilisation to rapidly reduce emissions.
The G20 nations, responsible for 77 per cent of global emissions in 2023, hold a pivotal role.
With the African Union’s inclusion as a G20 member, the group now accounts for 82 per cent of emissions, highlighting the need for differentiated responsibilities among nations.
The analysis indicates that while implementing net-zero pledges could limit warming to 1.9°C, confidence in the realisation of these pledges remains low.
The Emissions Gap Report also details the technical potential to cut emissions by up to 52 per cent of 2023 levels by 2030, achievable at a cost of less than USD 200 per ton of CO₂ equivalent.
Renewable energy sources, particularly solar and wind, could contribute 27 per cent of this reduction, while enhanced forest protection could deliver an additional 20 per cent.
However, the required investments for mitigation - an increase of at least six-fold - pose a significant challenge.
UNEP calls for a whole-of-government approach and substantial reform of the global financial architecture to support mitigation efforts, stressing that the estimated incremental investment of US$0.9-2.1 trillion per year from 2021 to 2050 is feasible given the returns in avoided climate impacts.