New research suggests belief in conspiracy theories may not be increasing. 

It may seem like more and more people are falling prey to increasingly bizarre conspiracy theories such as QAnon and flat Earth 'theory', but such beliefs may actually not have increased over time, according to US and UK researchers.

The international research team has re-analysed the results of four surveys. 

The first asked Americans if certain conspiracy theories have increased in popularity. The second evaluated conspiracy theories in six European countries. The third asked Americans which groups they thought were behind conspiracies, and the fourth examined general attitudes towards conspiracies in the USA. 

In all four analyses, the researchers found no evidence that beliefs in conspiracy theories have increased over time. 

In fact, they found beliefs in specific theories were more likely to decrease than increase, and of those that did increase, none involved COVID-19 nor QAnon. 

Although the findings sound reassuring, the team says they suggest that beliefs in conspiracy theories exist at baseline levels that may be concerning, and these levels are perhaps only now becoming more apparent to the public.

“Despite popular claims about America slipping down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole into a state of post-truth, we do not find that conspiracism has increased over time,” said researcher Dr Adam Enders.

“We examine beliefs in dozens of specific conspiracy theories, perceptions of who is likely to be involved in conspiracy theories, and the general predisposition to interpret events and circumstances as the product of conspiracy theories - in no case do we observe an average increase in conspiracy beliefs.”

The study is accessible here.