Liberal love lost in nation's heartlands
A recent poll has shown waning support for the federal Coalition government in regional areas.
Many believe residents of remote communities fall obediently into support for the Nationals, but a Nielsen/Australian Financial Review poll of 1,400 voters has shown much more political diversity and volatility than some might expect.
According to the AFR figures, the Coalition's primary vote has dropped by 8 per cent, while its two-party vote in regional areas has fallen by 10 per cent.
The approval rating for Prime Minister Tony Abbott personally fell 7 per cent outside capital cities, despite increasing by 2 per cent for city voters.
Given that the Coalition traditionally polls quite strongly in rural areas, some experts say the significant drop is because their approval has further to fall.
There is also a belief that city voters are less likely to back the Coalition, and that recent success in these areas is a reflection of a strong base of support. Conversely, rural areas tend to have greater variance around their regions, as each one has its own set of interests and concerns.
This is a line backed by Deakin University politics lecturer Geoff Robinson, who told the ABC this week that it is important to consider the scope of the AFR poll in relation to the people it seeks to represent.
“We're talking about areas such as the north coast of NSW, the whole north coast region of Queensland, where there are quite a few marginal seats. I think those areas tend to be quite politically volatile; they don't have, perhaps, some of the rusted on Labor and Coalition supporters that you tend to find in some of the capital cities,” Dr Robinson said.
“The number of farmers, the number of agricultural employees and so on, continues to decline as a proportion of the overall population.”
“So what's driving the overall population is large provincial cities; that's why, for example, while last federal election was a pretty bad result for the Labor Party, they were still able to hold on to some regional seats, the sort of seats that a few decades ago they would have lost when they lost an election fairly badly,” he said.
Charles Sturt University associate professor of political science, Dominic O'Sullivan, shared similar sentiments.
“This is a poll of only 1,400 people across the country. Most of the drop in rural support is attributable to Western Australia and that's a unique situation, because voters were obviously focused on that [Senate] by-election; by-elections are traditionally avenues for protest,” Dr O’Sullivan said.
“With the Budget coming up and people fearing cuts, rural people perhaps feel a bit more sensitive about that because of the tradition of taking money out of the country hospitals and in rural hospitals there's not another hospital around the corner to go to. Same with education.”